Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 23.906502 25.333961 26.848988 28.584802 30.528856 32.651264 35.160567
2025-12-07 21.768557 23.669934 25.785006 28.338443 31.374377 34.917990 39.444510
2025-12-14 19.959214 22.012666 24.357829 27.276279 30.873568 35.253131 41.142663
2025-12-21 19.099702 21.338120 23.957155 27.310964 31.591879 37.028654 44.744038
2025-12-28 18.537032 20.946927 23.828237 27.615577 32.611043 39.220736 49.126107
2026-01-04 17.691800 20.147915 23.128517 27.118772 32.507026 39.855040 51.336159
2026-01-11 17.379302 19.977462 23.187655 27.583041 33.695894 42.362846 56.683038
2026-01-18 17.000697 19.695650 23.076430 27.795753 34.531221 44.422816 61.650918
2026-01-25 16.407982 19.109130 22.532683 27.375441 34.412885 45.010554 64.201771
2026-02-01 15.845155 18.535849 21.976061 26.898019 34.163611 45.350626 66.341326
2026-02-08 15.121638 17.727572 21.073572 25.887421 33.048621 44.197989 65.500497
2026-02-15 14.806646 17.442433 20.859281 25.837505 33.375836 45.419410 69.445113
2026-02-22 14.387124 17.059199 20.568329 25.770422 33.845351 47.231519 75.709171
2026-03-01 13.934153 16.616940 20.180709 25.546319 34.065042 48.683233 81.809798
2026-03-08 13.305725 15.909945 19.387950 24.662940 33.128710 47.903111 82.472055
2026-03-15 13.019638 15.654080 19.211856 24.691314 33.689113 49.976215 90.933751
2026-03-22 12.826385 15.514581 19.189428 24.946233 34.647072 52.968361 103.336735
2026-03-29 12.446295 15.101931 18.755453 24.530470 34.397857 53.473757 108.700489
2026-04-05 12.325630 15.044366 18.830330 24.919016 35.608153 57.263795 127.280601
2026-04-12 12.153220 14.906252 18.778560 25.096743 36.447944 60.413856 146.540948
2026-04-19 11.848036 14.569420 18.417645 24.745384 36.257390 61.127959 156.302736
2026-04-26 11.546575 14.229152 18.039368 24.345425 35.940399 61.489744 164.947568
2026-05-03 11.140775 13.729856 17.407710 23.495757 34.693063 59.379323 159.498530